US Visa Restrictions Lead to Sharp Decline in International Student Enrolments, Impacting Mid-Tier Colleges
New US visa rules have led to a 10% drop in international undergraduate applications for 2026-27, hitting mid-ranked colleges hardest and risking jobs and local economies.
By John Mtongoi Newsroom
August 24, 2026
2 min read
Recent data reveals a significant decline in international student enrolments in US colleges, driven largely by tightened visa regulations. According to the Common App, international undergraduate applications for the 2026-27 academic year fell by 10%, marking the steepest drop ever recorded on the platform.
This decline follows a 17% reduction in new international student arrivals during the fall 2025 semester, as reported by the US Department of State and the Institute of International Education (IIE). Projections for the upcoming autumn term suggest further decreases, particularly among applicants from Asia and Africa.
Visa Policy Changes Affect Mid-Ranked Institutions Most
New US visa policies, introduced during the Trump administration, now limit F-1 and J-1 student visa durations to four years, replacing the previous "duration of status" system. Combined with restricted visa appointment availability and country-specific limitations, these rules disproportionately impact mid-ranked private and regional public colleges.
Experts note that elite universities such as Harvard, MIT, and Stanford are better positioned to withstand enrolment declines due to their strong applicant pools. In contrast, mid-tier institutions that rely heavily on full-fee-paying international students face financial strain, with fewer options to replace lost revenue amid shrinking domestic student numbers.
Broader Economic Implications
Declining international enrolments carry substantial economic consequences beyond campuses. NAFSA: Association of International Educators estimates the current drop could cost local US economies approximately KSh 440 billion (USD 3.4 billion) and jeopardize up to 40,000 jobs.
Fanta Aw, NAFSA's executive director and CEO, emphasized that US immigration policies significantly influence international students' decisions, with wide-reaching effects on society and the economy.
Universities with large graduate and STEM programmes face additional challenges, as degree completion often exceeds the new visa limits, complicating enrolment sustainability.
