Rwanda Enhances Flood Preparedness Ahead of Strong El Niño Season

Rwanda is intensifying efforts to prepare for potential floods and landslides as meteorologists warn of a strong El Niño event expected to bring above-average rainfall during the October to December 2026 rainy season.

At the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 74) held in Rwanda, experts from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) highlighted the need for enhanced early warning systems and multi-sectoral preparedness to reduce the impact of prolonged heavy rains on vulnerable communities and critical infrastructure.

Key Measures and Sectoral Impacts

• Government Strategy: The Ministry of Environment is focusing on improved rainfall forecasting, flood early warning, catchment management, drought preparedness, and disaster response mechanisms.
• Vulnerable Groups: Special attention will be given to women, children, elderly, persons with disabilities, smallholder farmers, pastoralists, fishing communities, and informal settlement residents.
• Sectoral Risks: Heavy rains threaten agriculture, roads, bridges, water resources, energy, health, and livelihoods, with possible disruptions to transport and increased displacement risks.

Fidèle Bingwa, Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Environment, emphasized the urgency of moving beyond forecasting to active preparedness, urging all stakeholders including humanitarian organizations, financial institutions, and private sector actors to invest in climate services and early warning systems.

Director General of Meteo Rwanda, Aimable Gahigi, noted that the El Niño event could affect nearly every economic sector, underscoring the need for comprehensive readiness.

Regional Outlook and Forecast Details

Climate scientist Nicholas Savage indicated a 99% likelihood of El Niño and a 96% chance of it being very strong during the upcoming rainy season, with potential persistence into 2027. The forecast suggests that many parts of East Africa, including Rwanda, could receive rainfall exceeding 300 millimeters, with some areas possibly over 400 millimeters.

Abdi Fidar, ICPAC Director, highlighted the importance of translating forecasts into actionable plans, noting that climate risks transcend borders due to shared ecosystems and livelihoods across the region.

Communities and institutions have been urged by the Ministry of Emergency Management (MINEMA) to use the current period to prepare for increased risks such as floods, landslides, lightning, and strong winds linked to El Niño.

Conclusion

Rwanda’s proactive approach aims to minimize the human and economic consequences of the anticipated heavy rains by strengthening early warning dissemination, protecting infrastructure, and ensuring vulnerable populations are equipped to respond effectively.