The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has issued a warning highlighting the risk of continued below-average rainfall in western Kenya during August. This comes amid ongoing rainfall deficits recorded from May to July, raising alarms over potential impacts on food production, water availability, and livestock health.

Extended Dry Conditions and Agricultural Impact

ICPAC's latest climate watch, valid until September 11, 2026, indicates that soil moisture shortages and vegetation stress have already affected parts of western Kenya. These conditions threaten crop growth and pasture quality, putting farmers and pastoralists under pressure.

Lower rainfall can reduce agricultural yields, limiting food supplies and potentially driving up prices. While the final effect on food markets depends on production in other regions and import levels, consumers may face increased costs if supply tightens amid steady demand.

Risks to Water Resources and Livestock

Water scarcity is another critical concern. Reduced rainfall hampers the replenishment of water sources, intensifying competition among households, agriculture, and livestock. Pastoral communities are especially vulnerable as animals may need to travel greater distances to find water and grazing areas.

ICPAC highlights that these environmental stresses could significantly impact livelihoods, livestock production, and public health in affected counties.

El Niño and Future Outlook

The warning also notes a high probability—over 90%—that El Niño conditions will persist through the March-May 2027 season. Historically, El Niño has been linked to suppressed rainfall in northern Eastern Africa during June to September, suggesting that dry spells may continue or worsen.

In addition, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to remain through December 2026, further influencing regional climate patterns.

Preparedness Measures

Given these projections, national and county governments are urged to enhance monitoring of rainfall, food production, water supplies, pasture conditions, and livestock health. Early interventions will be critical to mitigate the adverse effects on food security and livelihoods.

The next ICPAC climate watch update is scheduled for release on or before September 12, 2026.