The Intergovernmental Authority on Development's Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has issued a warning highlighting worsening dry conditions across parts of western Kenya. This alert calls on county governments to act swiftly to mitigate impacts on agriculture, livestock, water resources, and vulnerable communities.
Since May, rainfall deficits have persisted in the northern sector of Eastern Africa and have extended into western Kenya, leading to soil moisture shortages and vegetation stress. ICPAC's August 10, 2026 Climate Watch Advisory indicates a high likelihood of continued below-normal rainfall in these areas, with the evolving El Niño pattern expected to exacerbate the situation.
Counties on Heightened Alert
The national government has placed 18 counties under heightened alert due to multiple risks such as drought, livestock losses, food insecurity, flash floods, and landslides. Counties like Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot, and Narok face a combination of these threats, while Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera are particularly vulnerable to drought and water scarcity.
Challenges for County Governments
The varied nature of risks means county administrations must adopt tailored responses. Drought-prone areas need to prioritize water management, pasture monitoring, and support for vulnerable households. Meanwhile, other counties must also prepare for potential flooding, disease outbreaks, and infrastructure damage as rainfall patterns shift.
Impact on Agriculture and Livestock
ICPAC warns that declining soil moisture and below-average rainfall threaten crop development and livestock health. Pastoralists may face increased pressure on grazing lands and water sources, potentially affecting household incomes and local food security. Continuous monitoring and timely dissemination of climate information are vital to help farmers and herders adapt.
El Niño's Dual Threat
El Niño conditions, with over 90% probability of persistence through March-May 2027, bring complexity to the outlook. Historically linked to suppressed rainfall in northern Eastern Africa during June-September, El Niño raises the risk of prolonged dry spells. However, it also carries the potential for heavy rains and flooding later in the year, requiring counties to prepare for a wide range of hazards.
This advisory is a precautionary alert rather than a declaration of a nationwide drought emergency. ICPAC plans to update the forecast by September 12, 2026. The key challenge for Kenyan counties is to translate early warnings into effective preparedness measures to avoid escalating into crisis response.
