El Niño Set to Impact East Africa’s Rainy Season with Increased Flood Risks
A strong El Niño is forecast to bring wetter-than-normal conditions to East Africa, raising flood and disease risks during the critical short rains season.
By John Mtongoi Newsroom
August 20, 2026
2 min read
East Africa is bracing for a strong El Niño event expected to significantly influence the region’s October-to-December rainy season, according to recent forecasts by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Understanding El Niño and Its Effects
El Niño is a periodic climate phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean, characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures. This disrupts typical weather patterns globally, often causing droughts in some regions and heavy rains in others.
The current El Niño event is predicted to be one of the strongest on record, potentially rivaling the notable 1997-98 and 2015-16 episodes. The warming of the Pacific, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, is expected to amplify rainfall over East Africa.
Dual Impact on East Africa’s Rainfall
- Earlier Dry Season: The region experienced below-average rainfall from June to September, impacting water availability and agriculture in parts of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Uganda.
- Upcoming Wet Season: Forecasts now indicate a high probability of above-normal rainfall for the short rains season, which is vital for countries including Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
Some areas face up to a 90% chance of receiving rainfall exceeding 300 millimeters, with localized zones potentially surpassing 400 millimeters. This increase is expected after a relatively dry September.
Risks and Preparedness Measures
While increased rainfall can replenish water sources and support agriculture, the intensity raises concerns about flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage. Health risks such as cholera, malaria, and Rift Valley fever may also rise due to standing water and mosquito proliferation.
Governments in the region, including Rwanda, are enhancing early warning systems and preparing for flood-related emergencies. Regional meteorological agencies continue to monitor river levels and update forecasts to guide disaster management and agricultural planning.
Looking Ahead
The WMO will release an updated El Niño outlook in early September, providing further clarity on the event’s trajectory. Authorities emphasize the importance of relying on current forecasts rather than historical comparisons to prepare for the season ahead.
