The United States has reclaimed its position as Kenya’s leading coffee export market, surpassing Belgium, according to data from the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA).

During the latest coffee season, the US imported 10,844.1 tonnes of Kenyan coffee valued at Sh7.42 billion, making up 21.4% of Kenya’s total coffee export earnings. Belgium, which previously held the top spot, purchased 8,332.5 tonnes worth Sh7.62 billion, accounting for 16.44% of export value.

Factors Driving US Demand

The shift in export markets aligns with changing coffee consumption patterns in the US. A survey by the US National Coffee Association revealed that 85% of coffee drinkers consumed their coffee at home, the highest rate since 2012. This trend is attributed to hybrid working arrangements and economic considerations encouraging Americans to brew coffee domestically rather than frequenting cafes.

Among those who drank coffee outside the home, most did so at workplaces or via drive-throughs, with fewer visiting coffee shops. On average, US consumers drink 2.8 cups daily, amounting to over 500 million cups served each day nationwide.

Kenya’s Coffee Export Performance

Kenya’s coffee export earnings reached a record Sh43.89 billion in the year ending June 2025, marking a 9.9% increase from the previous year’s Sh39.95 billion. This growth was mainly driven by higher international prices rather than a significant rise in export volumes, which increased modestly by 3% to 50.68 million kilograms.

The US market’s recovery is notable, especially considering it was Kenya’s largest buyer in the year to June 2023, when Belgium’s purchases were substantially smaller at 5,026 tonnes worth Sh3.91 billion.

Market Dynamics and Opportunities

  • American buyers show a preference for specialty and premium Kenyan coffee, opening access to higher-value segments.
  • Direct trade relationships between US buyers and Kenyan cooperatives and estates are growing, potentially reducing reliance on intermediaries.
  • Kenyan coffee faces competition from other major producers including Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Honduras.
  • Global coffee prices have surged due to supply shortages caused by adverse weather in key producing countries, benefiting Kenyan exporters despite limited volume increases.