Recent United Nations monitoring reveals that persistent counterterrorism measures in Somalia have significantly limited Al-Shabaab's ability to carry out large-scale attacks. The 38th Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team report, submitted under resolution 2734 (2024), highlights a strategic shift by the militant group towards more targeted operations following intensified security efforts.
The report details notable progress by Somali security forces and their partners in dismantling key Al-Shabaab leadership. Several high-ranking members responsible for bomb-making and financial management were neutralized between December 2025 and February 2026. However, the group's overall leader, Ahmed Diriye, remains active in southern Somalia.
Despite setbacks, Al-Shabaab's financial resources have shown resilience. Revenue collection has decreased—partly due to drought in Jubaland and Shabelle regions and enhanced security in Mogadishu—dropping from an estimated $12–15 million monthly to $5–9 million. Nevertheless, the group maintains ties with external actors like AQAP and the Houthis, raising concerns over enhanced operational capabilities through such alliances.
The report also notes Al-Shabaab's ongoing efforts to improve mortar accuracy and develop drone-jamming technology to counter surveillance and airstrikes.
Separately, ISIL (Da’esh) in Somalia continues to face pressure from security operations, limiting its territorial control and operational reach. The group, estimated to have 150–250 fighters mainly in the Cal Miskaat mountains, has attempted to regain ground amid a temporary reduction in security operations. Financially constrained, ISIL (Da’esh) relies on extortion in coastal towns but remains unable to support affiliates elsewhere.
Regional counterterrorism cooperation remains critical, as the report warns that weakening pressure could enable resurgence or increased foreign fighter movement through established illicit networks.
