FEWS NET Forecast: Kenya’s Food Security Expected to Improve as Uganda’s Needs Surge

A recent forecast by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) projects a notable improvement in Kenya’s food security by February 2027, contrasting sharply with rising food assistance needs in Uganda.

Kenya’s Food Security Outlook Brightens

FEWS NET estimates that the population in Kenya requiring urgent food aid will decrease from approximately 3.5-4 million in August 2026 to between 2-2.5 million by February 2027. This improvement is largely attributed to anticipated above-average October-December short rains, which are expected to enhance water availability and soil moisture.

Improved pasture growth and harvests are projected to boost food access and household incomes across most of Kenya’s bimodal rainfall zones. Although localized flooding related to El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole is expected, these conditions should not significantly undermine the overall positive trend.

Nevertheless, food insecurity will persist in specific areas, particularly in the Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps, where humanitarian assistance remains crucial to prevent escalation to emergency levels (IPC Phase 4).

Uganda’s Food Assistance Needs Climb

In contrast, Uganda is forecast to see a near doubling of people requiring urgent food aid, rising from 1-1.5 million currently to 2-2.5 million by February 2027. This increase surpasses both last year’s figures and the five-year average.

The heightened need is concentrated in refugee-hosting areas and the Karamoja region, where persistent livelihood challenges and declining livestock ownership exacerbate food insecurity. Although second-season harvests in Uganda’s bimodal zones may temporarily improve food availability and lower prices, these gains are insufficient to offset ongoing pressures.

FEWS NET anticipates Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions in these vulnerable regions, driven by continued refugee arrivals and poor local harvests.

Regional Food Security: A Mixed Picture

The divergent trajectories in Kenya and Uganda highlight that East Africa’s food security dynamics are influenced by more than just rainfall patterns. Kenya’s improving outlook reflects better agricultural conditions and income opportunities, while Uganda faces complex challenges related to population movements and fragile livelihoods.

Burundi also shows mixed outcomes, with expected improvements in food availability following Season A harvests, but ongoing economic difficulties are likely to sustain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity in some areas.

For Kenyan households, the forecast offers cautious optimism as enhanced rains and harvests could increase food and income access. However, disparities will remain, and not all communities will experience the same benefits.

Meanwhile, Uganda’s rising food assistance requirements underscore the urgent needs of vulnerable populations, particularly refugees and those in marginalized regions.