Meteorological experts have issued warnings about an early and possibly heavy rainy season in Kenya, with pre-seasonal rains expected to start as soon as September in some regions.
Maithya wa Vilivū, a leading weather analyst, noted that current August forecasts indicate the October-December (OND) rainy season will commence earlier than usual, especially in North Eastern Kenya and the coastal areas. Initial rainfall is projected to affect Somalia, Eastern Ethiopia, and parts of Kenya before spreading nationwide in October.
He explained that the onset is marked by the appearance of rain bands in Eastern Ethiopia and neighboring regions, signaling the southward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) towards equatorial Africa.
Forecasts suggest September rainfall could exceed long-term averages by up to 20mm in affected zones, with rains intensifying and continuing into January 2027.
Influence of El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole
The warnings come as the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) highlights a strengthening El Niño event, expected to peak between August and October. This phenomenon is linked to altered global rainfall patterns and increased precipitation across the Greater Horn of Africa.
Additionally, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) characterized by warmer western Indian Ocean waters near East Africa and cooler waters near Indonesia may amplify moisture flow into the region, potentially worsening rainfall intensity.
Maithya cautioned that while these combined climate drivers raise concerns about flooding and weather disruptions, precise timing and severity will become clearer with upcoming short-range forecasts.
Current Weather Outlook
The Kenya Meteorological Service has already predicted showers and thunderstorms in multiple counties, including Nairobi, Kisumu, Kakamega, Bungoma, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, and Turkana. Nighttime rains are expected primarily in western counties.
Residents and authorities are urged to prepare for possible flooding and related challenges in the coming months.
